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GOP Senate prospects jockey for the nomination

by Frank Cagle

The next statewide political brawl in Tennessee will be in 2006, but the fun starts after Nov. 2 of this year.

Gov. Phil Bredesen, with a 70 percent approval rating, will likely face no opposition. If there is a token Republican candidate, he can depend on raising about 200 bucks, if he’s lucky.

U.S. Sen. Bill Frist is expected to give up his seat to prepare for his run for the presidency in 2008. The Democrats seem to be relying on U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr., of Memphis, to be their standard-bearer for his seat.

That leaves the Republican primary in the U.S. Senate race as the main event, and campaigns will start right after the next election. There were six potential candidates matched in a name-recognition poll by The Tennessean newspaper last week: Ex-congressmen Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant; Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker; Current members of Congress Zach Wamp and Marsha Blackburn; and state Rep. Beth Harwell, who is also chair of the Tennessee Republican Party.

(Full disclosure: I know these people, and I like them all. I worked in Hilleary’s gubernatorial campaign. I supported Byrant in the Senate race. I favored Corker in 1994 instead of Frist. I didn’t support Wamp the first time he ran, but I’ve been impressed with his congressional career. Blackburn was a state senator during the income tax fight, and I was impressed with her ability to motivate voters. Harwell was party chair during the gubernatorial race and has an outstanding 18-year record in the Legislature. I am also acquainted with Ford, like him, and think he is an impressive candidate.)

At this point in the race everyone seems to be frozen, waiting for Corker to make an announcement. He has said he will not run for re-election as mayor, which seems to signal that he is considering the Senate bid. He is the choice of many of the big political contributors in the Republican Party, and he also has personal wealth. He would be strong in his Chattanooga base, and he has many friends in the business community in Knoxville, like the Haslams.

The Tennessean poll reveals that two-thirds of those polled don’t recognize Corker’s name. A lot of money spent on television could remedy that, but he would have a long climb against better known opponents in the race.

Should Corker not run, the money people might also look at Harwell, who represents Belle Meade, a funding base for the state party. As party chair, she also knows all the money people. But she also is not recognized by 75 percent of those polled. She is considered a rising star in the party, but may decide it’s not yet time for a statewide race. Blackburn is about to be re-elected to a second term in Congress and is not believed to be serious about the Senate race. Political insiders predict she may have her eye on the governor’s office in 2010.

Wamp and Corker have the same political base in Chattanooga, and it is widely believed that they will not run against each other. I’m not so sure. I think Wamp is serious about running and hopes that Corker will not. But I don’t think it’s a cinch that Wamp will not run if Corker does. The poll found that Wamp is not recognized by 57 percent of voters. His district would be strong for him, but he has yet to get around the state enough to be a household name. He is an incumbent, a great campaigner and has two years to change that.

That leaves two ex-congressmen who have run statewide races.

The most shocking thing in the poll is that Bryant, who ran statewide against U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander just two years ago, is not recognized by 58 percent of those polled. He has run statewide and his numbers are about the same as Wamp, who has run only in his district. Hilleary, by contrast, is not recognized by only 18 percent of those polled. In other words, Hilleary is recognized by 82 percent of respondents compared with Bryant at 42 percent.

Bryant and Hilleary are friends, and both would be strong in the “collar” counties around Nashville. They are also both from the conservative wing of the party. They are similar to Corker and Wamp in that it would be better for each if the other did not run.

At this point in the race the situation shapes up like this: Corker’s decision is the starting gun. Wamp is ready either way. Blackburn and Harwell are not likely to be in it. Hilleary and Bryant need to decide if they should flip a coin or whether they want to go head to head.

Young Ford can sit back and watch the Republicans beat each other’s brains out and hope the primary splits the Republican Party wide open.

Frank Cagle is a political analyst and the host of Sound Off on WIVK FM107.7, WNOX AM990, FM99.1 and FM99.3 each Sunday 8-9:30 a.m. The program is pre-empted this week by Sports Soundoff, coverage of the Vols versus Auburn football game.

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