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College football’s winners mostly newbies

by Tony Basilio

Marilyn Monroe introduced it to pop culture; Tennessee fans, like so many before them in college football, are experiencing it. “It” is the Seven Year Itch, a principle applicable to marriage and modern-day college sports alike. Modified for the college gridiron, the theory has it that that today’s game takes such a toll on head coaches that their first seven years will be their best. The years that follow, so the theory goes, offer only diminishing returns.

A cursory look at this year’s pre-season polls tells us that the theory may have some validity. Athlon’s Football Annual is a longtime opinion leader in this realm; its pre-season top 15 is an excellent indicator of what the major polls will look like when they’re released in late summer. Here’s a look at Athlon’s Top 10, along with some observations about the coaches of each of the teams represented:

1. USC: Coached by Pete Carroll, the Trojans split the National Title with LSU last year in just his second season.

2. Oklahoma: The Sooners won a national title in Bob Stoops’ second season, then played for it all again last year, just his fifth in Norman.

3. Georgia: The Bulldogs are led by fourth-year head coach Mark Richt, who seemingly owns Tennessee. Some think he could own a national championship ring at year’s end.

4. Miami: ‘Canes chief Larry Coker won 33 straight games before tasting defeat as a head coach. He has been on the job for only four seasons.

5. West Virginia: Head coach Bobby Rodriquez has put WVU back into the national spotlight in only two seasons.

6. Texas: Mack Brown is getting into the Seven Year Itch territory. Maybe that’s why so many Texas fans have an itchy trigger finger.

7. Michigan: Lloyd Carr won Michigan’s only National Title in the modern era back in ’97. He is the first coach in this pre-season poll with more than seven years at the same school.

8. LSU: Head coach Nick Saban; four years on the Bayou; two SEC titles; one national title. ’Nuff said!

9. Florida State: Bobby Bowden used to live in the pre-season top five, but not anymore. Still, Bowden’s longevity makes him an exception to the rule. The game will never see his likes again, thank God.

10. Ohio State: Jim Tressell won the national title in only his second season back in ’02. On the job less than three years, he has enjoyed massive success.

Looking at the poll, you can draw a couple of conclusions. First, college football is all about fashion; you’re either hot or you’re not. Second, longevity is not a prerequisite for success. Only Carr and Bowden have been at their schools longer than seven years. Guys are winning, and they’re doing so with alarming quickness. Of course, it remains to be seen whether the Stoops, Sabans and Carrolls can sustain success past the seven-year mark. With the allure of NFL riches and the transient nature of the game, they may not even get the chance.

At the University of Tennessee, head coach Phillip Fulmer chose longevity over a possible windfall in the NFL. For that, he should be commended. Still, it’s apparent in Big Orange Country that Tennessee is not the same program that it was in Fulmer’s first seven years on the job.

Has the Itch taken its toll? From 1992 through the national title year of ‘98, Fulmer posted a lofty 16-6-1 mark (.695 winning percentage) against the top five programs in the SEC. Since then, UT has slipped to 9-11 (.450 winning percentage) against Florida, Auburn, Alabama, LSU and Georgia. His overall record is still a respectable 25-17-1 (.581) since winning it all, and Tennessee is still a major name in college football. But the Vols are no longer regarded as a perennial powerhouse. Fulmer will remind people that UT won 10 games last year, but Tennessee was one of 23 schools in Division 1-A to win at least that many regular season games.

In all fairness, many other veteran coaches have struggled to keep the pace with the young guns. Whatever happened to Paterno, Pasqualoni, or even Frank Beamer? Have they also succumbed to the Seven Year Itch? (In Paterno’s case, call it the 47 Year Itch.)

One thing is for sure; we will never see the likes of Paterno or Bowden again. These guys are institutions, members of a dying breed.

So rest easy, ‘Bama fans: the Bear will be safe in the Top 5 until the end of time. That’s one of the few things U of A fans can celebrate in today’s college football. On the other hand, while the Tide may be passe, Marilyn Monroe seems as hot as ever.

June 17, 2004 • Vol. 14, No. 25 © 2004 Metro Pulse