by Matt Edens
Opinions. As the saying goes, everybody has one. And thanks to the Internet, just about every-one can post theirs for the world to see—their opinion, that is.
Punditry, however, requires more than mere mental exhibitionism. It takes the ability to sift through reams of information, a broad base of personal knowledge, the skill to assemble a persuasive argument and the pure, narcissistic self-confidence to say that those facts and that argument prove, by God, whatever you set out to prove in the first place (an ability to cut and paste hyperlinks helps too).
Pundit A will say the California recall is evidence of a rising Republican tide that will propel Bush into a second term. Pundit B will say it's a clear indicator of people's growing frustration with incumbents that will boot Bush out of office. Of course it could just mean that the people of California, like those of Minnesota, thought Predator was a way cool movie with awesome special effects for its day. But how's that going to generate hits to your website? A pundit, like any sideshow seer or medium, stays in business by telling his audience what they want to hear.
But please, folks, don't try this at home. Leave it to the seasoned professionals. Or else you'll wind up making statements like the poor fellow who, on realizing that Bob Becker's vote total was only 12 shy of Joe Bailey's in the recent City Council election posted the following sage assessment to a local Internet discussion group: "it seems to suggest that there are as many people who are dedicated to environmental protection, public participation in government, and economic justice as there are supporters of Knoxville's runaway, sprawling development and protectors of the city's status quo political and economic interests."
Charlie Thomas, I'm sad to say, might suggest otherwise. The numbers certainly do. For Becker and Bailey to have posted the vote totals they did at least 2,500 people had to pull the lever for both of them. Of the roughly 13,000 total votes cast, they each—running in separate races—got around 7,700 votes while their opponents each scored a few hundred shy of 5,000). So who knows? Was it a battle royal between economic justice and economic interests? Or was it just a good day for guys whose last name starts with "B?" After all, there's more statistical evidence to support the second hypothesis.
So other than apparent schizophrenia on the part of the voters, what should one make of the recent City Council races? Whatever one wants to, apparently. I'm not about to read the tea leaves.
But I will offer one observation: this election continues a drift back towards the center that began in the last election. Not politically, but geographically. Bailey, Roddy and Woodhull all live closer to downtown than their predecessors, as do Frost and Hultquist from the last round. Becker, while a block farther out Central than Larry Cox, still lives less than two miles from Market Square. Some of this trend has to do with the same resurgence, in recent years, of an urban middle class that produced the donut shaped electoral results in the mayor's race. Certainly candidates such as Rob Frost or Chris Woodhull would have been unthinkable 10 or 15 years ago because the revitalization that brought each of them to the center-city was in its infancy.
It's tough to say what this drift back towards downtown will mean politically. I could say it bodes well for center-city redevelopment and reinvestment but as much as I'd like that to be true, saying it won't make it so. It all depends on where the votes fall every other Tuesday night. But the mere fact that downtown redevelopment, mass transit and historic preservation have actually become local campaign issues is an encouraging sign.
Then there's the fact that Woodhull filling one of Council's at-large seats means there are two votes on Council residing in the 6th District. Two councilmen from Knoxville's single predominately African-American district is, to my knowledge, a first.
The fact that one of them is black while the other is white, however, raises some interesting questions. Originally, efforts to ensure a black majority in at least one Council district meant including the traditionally African-American communities of both East and Northwest Knoxville in a dumbbell shaped district with downtown serving as the "handle" linking the two halves. But since both the East and Northwest continue to shed population as Knoxville's black population becomes more dispersed citywide, Council has been hard pressed at redistricting to expand the district's boundaries while maintaining both an African-American majority in the 6th and a relative balance of population with the remaining five Council districts.
The reverse migration that's bringing homeowners like Woodhull to places like Mechanicsville and Parkridge and hundreds of new, predominantly white, loft dwellers to downtown won't make that any easier. Combine that with the increasing migration of upwardly mobile African Americans to the suburbs and it could make for some odd quirks in the future. In fact, it already has. When the new Council takes office six of its members will—as the crow flies—live closer to downtown than the man who represents it: 6th District Councilman Mark Brown.
November 20, 2003 * Vol. 13, No. 47
© 2003 Metro Pulse
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