Metro Pulse/Snarls/Weather or Not?

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Or "Meteorologists: misguided fools or lying scum?"

by Scott McNutt

On Sunday January 6, 2002, an unusual event occurred in East Tennessee: It snowed, which in itself is no remarkable thing. What was unusual—astonishing, even—was that this incidence of frozen precipitation had been anticipated. Weather forecasters across the region had really, truly predicted this snowfall. In fact, they predicted the heck out of it!

For instance, so excited was the Weather Channel by its own surprising display of accuracy, that it was still airing predictions of "100% chance of snow...4-8 inches total accumulation" long after the storm had moved on, leaving us with a thin, patchy sheet of snow. Yes, the total accumulation forecast was a bit, ahem, off. But I suppose if you are a weather forecaster in East Tennessee, you make the most of any success that happens to fall your way.

We East Tennesseans are, perhaps, a bit hard on our meteorological prognosticators. But if so, it is for a good reason: They deserve it. Those of us who are long-time denizens of the region know the simple truth: You can't predict the weather in East Tennessee. And those audacious enough to try only reap the fruit ruined by the sudden downpour they failed to predict. In this region, there are lies, damn lies, and weather predictions.

Besides, however harshly we may deal with our local weather shamans, we have not yet resorted to legal action, which has been the case elsewhere, as demonstrated in various media reports. For example, on January 3 of this year, the BBC reported that Brazilian forecaster Luiz Carlos Austin "may end up in court after the cold, driving rains that he predicted for Rio de Janeiro on New Year's Eve never materialized. Rio's Mayor, Cesar Maya, wants charges brought over the fumbled forecast," because it could have caused a panic. If convicted of "sounding a false alarm," Austin would face a six-month jail sentence.

The same report goes on to note that "in 1999, tourism chiefs in Donegal, Ireland, threatened to take the Republic's weather forecasters to court for allegedly continually referring to the county's wet weather and denting the tourist trade. And an Israeli woman reportedly sued a forecaster in 1996 for allegedly causing her to catch the flu. She said she dressed too lightly after hearing his assurances of rising temperatures."

You may pooh-pooh these incidents of meteorological extremism as merely examples of the backwardness of lesser nations. But USA Today reported the following about a missed forecast in New Jersey last year: "Byram Township Mayor Richard Bowe...is calling for a federal or state investigation...to determine if the forecasts of heavy snow and blizzard conditions were mistakes or a deliberate attempt to generate ratings." Said Bowe: "This is no laughing matter."

So our local meteorologists should thank their lucky stars (on one of those occasions when they correctly predict clear skies for the evening) that we do treat their forecasts as laughing matters. In fact, if they'd just drop the silly pretense that there is some scientific basis for their soothsaying and join their crystal-ball-gazing psychic brethren of TV commercial infamy, nobody would care when they were wrong, or how often.

Plenty of "visionaries" have gotten away with—heck, been acclaimed for—their failed prophecies. Take Nostradamus. Quatrain III from his "Century II" reads: "Pour la chaleur solaire sus la mer/ De Negrepont les poissons demy cuits,/ Les habitans les viendront entamer/ Quand Rod & Gennes leur faudra le biscuit." Roughly translated, this reads "Highs in the upper 50s, lows in the upper 30s, increasing cloudiness with a 70 percent chance of rain for the next three centuries. Doesn't that just take the biscuit?"

He was, of course, completely wrong. He was always wrong! The biscuit was never taken! Five hundred years dead this rascal is, nothing he predicted ever came true, and yet, people love him!

So all their previous erroneous forecasts would be forgiven and forgotten if weather forecasters would just adopt mystical titles, such as Wind Reader or Climate Seer, and do their telecasts in French. Not giving a time frame for the forecasts would also help. And dying before they are proven incorrect would cinch it. I'd say they have at least a 70 percent chance of success.